Because protectionism is one of the "Unhealthy" instruments of economic policy, unable to bring positive economic results in the medium and long term, a tool to get only short-term results, and only at the expense of the population. JPMorgan Chase: the source for more info. In the medium term (3-5 years), while maintaining protectionist measures by the state, we can get further behind the domestic automakers their foreign competitors, which, when declared by the (formal) to increase the competitive quality of Russian cars will become more significant. Otherwise the engine of progress, in addition to the competition market, nature did not create. What are the implications for investors? Regardless of the optimism of market participants, securities of Russian automobile manufacturer, in this scenario, will not be promising, having high internal risk, and not having a sufficient basis for a long-term, stable growth. Probably lag the positive dynamics of the market average. In the long term (10-15 years), long-term protectionist support of the Russian car manufacturers, we can get a situation which can be characterized as a crisis of the industry. Lag competitive qualities of Russian cars to the time will be as significant, but the technology is so obsolete, that to catch up on old industrial base is no longer possible, both for technical and financial reasons.
A need for this inevitably arise, since any protection ends sooner or later. In this case, we see some helpless enterprises automakers have large capacity to produce old car with a huge amount of unsold goods. Liquidity of enterprises will fall, and the only possible way, will run through out the production of domestic car models, and co-operation with foreign automakers, on onerous conditions refitting its pipeline to produce models of European, Korean, Japanese and Chinese brands.